Which team will pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft? Through 11 weeks, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects the winless New York Jets with the best chance to get the top selection. The Jets took over the No. 1 spot after Week 5. The 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars are also in the running for the pick.
Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations.