Way back in November, the New Jersey Devils were scoring in bunches and the goal scoring leader was Brian Gibbons. Yes, the Brian Gibbons. He had nine goals as of November 22. This was astounding. It also begged the question: how many goals should we expect Gibbons to score? For the matter, how many should each of the Devils players score based on how they started the season?
CJ utilized the expected goals model at Corsica to figure out an answer back on November 22. You can read a fuller explanation of what the model is here, but the long and short of it is that the model determines how many goals a player should have based on where and how often they’re shooting the puck.