Last time, I discussed how we can use breakout data to explain how a team might tactically alter their breakout plays in order to generate more controlled exits. Today, I'm going to go over how we can quantify the expected shot rate based on how many aggressive forecheckers there were (number of players below the faceoff dots) as well as the type of forecheck (2-1-2 or 1-2-2). This would not have been possible without the data assistance of Muneeb Alam, who managed to extract certain data I wanted from the NHL play-by-play files. Thanks to Kevin for helping track games with me last fall.
An Aggressive Forecheck is Best
