The Patriots had the NFL’s leading sack duo in 2022, but an analytical model is projecting that their top two pass rushers will take a step back in 2023.
ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder’s model for predicting sack totals projects Matthew Judon to have nine sacks in 2023, a drop from the 15.5 sacks he recorded last year. In addition, the model projects that Josh Uche will have 6.7 sacks in the upcoming season, which is roughly five fewer than what he had in 2022 (11.5).
Walder’s model takes several things into account, such as sack total and rate in the prior two seasons plus pass rush win rate, team blitz rate, and even the player’s team’s win total, among other things.