Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game. Instead of filling out mock drafts, NFL teams opt to build models that help them predict how the draft could unfold. After draft week is over, some teams will even reveal the internal probabilities they had for players to fall to certain spots and how that influenced their decision-making.
At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects.