Rocco Miller can’t recall the exact moment when he felt the crazy urge to project which men’s college basketball teams were going to make the N.C.A.A. tournament by ranking 80 or so by hand on a notepad every week based on a list of criteria that he, alone, devised.
But he remembers what triggered this sleep-reducing idea: watching ESPN’s Joe Lunardi on television night after night, and getting frustrated by his opinions on locks, bubble teams, first-four-ins and first-four-outs.
“I wanted to do it to see if I could do better,” said Miller, 36.
Bracketology — the scientific-sounding name for prognosticating tournament picks before the official committee reveals the bracket on Selection Sunday — has exploded among basketball fans in recent years, fueled by social media, at-home podcasts and a website, Bracket Matrix, that tracks the accuracy of the forecasters, from pros like Lunardi to faceless amateurs with screen names like LoboFan2003 and One Man Selection Committee.