I'm going to let you in on a secret of the probabilistic prediction biz: We get to have it both ways.
Let's say FPI believes a team has a 72 percent chance to win a game, much like it did for Auburn against UCF in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. If Auburn had won, no one would have much doubted FPI's prediction powers: It said the Tigers probably would win, and they did. But when the Knights won, we were able to just shrug our shoulders and say, "Hey, things that are supposed to happen 28 percent of the time do sometimes happen.