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For the most part, what we believe heading into a given season is whatever we believed at the end of the season before. Take the preseason coaches' poll released last week: Among this year's top 11 teams are nine that finished last year in the top 10. It took last year's No. 2 Washington losing its head coach, coordinators, star quarterback and 20 of 22 starters for the Huskies not to start the season ranked pretty high.
There are surprises every year, however. Last season was in no way the most unpredictable year the sport has ever seen, but only half the preseason top 10 finished in the top 10.