With February just around the corner, every Bracket Watch update feels more and more like the real thing. There’s still plenty of basketball and changes to our working field of 68 ahead, but teams contending for at-large bids are starting to separate into three distinct groups: locks, likely tournament teams, and firm bubble teams. Think of the teams on the top three lines in this Bracket Watch as locks (or close to it), teams seeded fourth through seventh as likely tournament teams, and everyone else firmly on the bubble at this stage of the season. A handful of teams are bound to bounce between the latter two groups over the next six weeks, while some will move from group two to the coveted status found in group one.