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Predicting who wins a tight, tense NBA Finals

The number hovers over these NBA Finals: 31-1 -- the Golden State Warriors' record in their past 32 games with Stephen Curry and without Kevin Durant.

That is the version of Golden State that begins this final chase for a three-peat, and the team's fourth title in five seasons. If Durant returns, this becomes two different series: with him, and without him.

The Warriors can win it without him. That is self-evident. But that 31-1 number does not make them a sure thing against a confident Toronto Raptors team carrying home-court advantage.