The win probabilities for UFC 238’s nine qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Cejudo-Moraes, Shevchenko-Eye, Ferguson-Cerrone, and Suarez-Ansaroff, see Tuesday’s piece.
Henry Cejudo (58.7%) over Marlon Moraes
Valentina Shevchenko (81.9%) over Jessica Eye
Tony Ferguson (57.0%) over Donald Cerrone
Petr Yan (54.2%) over Jimmie Rivera
Tatiana Suarez (57.3%) over Nina Ansaroff
Aljamain Sterling (56.