The win probabilities for UFC 236’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Holloway-Poirier 2 and Gastelum-Adesanya, see Tuesday’s piece.
Max Holloway (65.8%) over Dustin Poirier
Israel Adesanya (52.3%) over Kelvin Gastelum
Eryk Anders (66.2%) over Khalil Rountree
Ovince Saint Preux (59.6%) over Nikita Krylov
Alexandre Pantoja (56.6%) over Wilson Reis
Belal Muhammad (60.