The win probabilities for UFC 226’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Miocic-Cormier, Ngannou-Lewis, Pettis-Chiesa, and the unfortunately scratched Holloway-Ortega fight, see Tuesday’s piece.
Miocic isn’t an official pick since the model doesn’t predict heavyweight fights. He was coded as a light heavyweight for fun, coming out with a slight edge in the champ-vs-champ superfight.
The model uses random numbers in its routine and the results are usually relatively stable if I re-run it with a different seed.