The win probabilities for UFC 225’s seven qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Whittaker-Romero, dos Anjos-Covington, and yes, Punk-Jackson, see Friday’s piece.
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While the model gives the edge to Covington, I’ll be thrilled to lose that pick and see RDA crowned the new UFC interim welterweight champion. Rashad Evans’ actual win probability is 50.05997%, rounded up to 50.