Orioles general manager Mike Elias is no stranger to making No. 1 picks. As the Astros scouting director from 2012 through last season, he had a hand in three consecutive first overall selections in ’12, ’13, and ’14. “We know the process and the pitfalls,” he says.
With Houston, he got a first-hand look at how much can go right or wrong at the top of the draft, from clear triumph (Carlos Correa in 2012) to total disaster (Mark Appel and Brady Aiken the next two summers). Few things in the sport are harder to predict. “In terms of picking the absolute very best player out of the draft, that’s almost never happened,” Elias says.