It was made official today, everyone. The Toronto Blue Jays acquired pitcher R.A. Dickey, catcher Josh Thole, and catcher Mike Nickeas in exchange for catcher John Buck, catcher Travis d'Arnaud (previously Toronto's top prospect and the 17th top prospect in the league according to MLB.com), pitcher Noah Syndegaard (previously Toronto's third best prospect according to MLB.com), and outfielder Wuilmer Becerra.
You should remember my previous article about the Toronto and Miami blockbuster. While I used that article to make fun of the Marlins and their pissed off fans, I neglected to include how ironic it was that Boston and New York are avoiding mortgaging the future and penny pinching respectively and now the Jays are mortgaging their future and attempting to buy their way to the World Series. Now GM Alex Anthopolous is really laying his balls on the cutting board. Giving up four of your top prospects in two separate deals is a balls to the wall, we want the championship now type of attitude. While I credit the man for attempting to take advantage of what appears to be a weak AL East, he should have seen what the Red Sox got themselves into by trying to buy a championship. While the Red Sox didn't trade four of their top prospects in two separate trades, they did trade three of their top six in one trade. They traded their top prospect in pitcher Casey Kelly, their second best prospect in first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and their sixth best prospect in outfielder Reymond Fuentes to the San Diego Padres in 2010 for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. And we all know how that deal ended up (thank you, Magic Johnson).
With Josh Johnson, Mark Beuhrle, and now R.A. Dickey headlining a rotation that was previously frontlined by promising young arms Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, the Jays appear to have one of the most formidable rotations in the game. It sounds stellar on paper, yes, but the 2010 Red Sox rotation also looked stellar on paper (Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and spot starter Tim Wakefield) and look how that rotation is now. Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey are the only ones who remain, and Lackey is no guarantee whatsoever. The same can be said for both Dickey and Johnson. Johnson is a big injury risk, as well as a league adjustment risk, and Dickey is a risk due to his age and what I view as questions about his stuff and how it translates to the AL East. How hard could it be to pitch stellar on a no pressure team in a piss poor division and a league that's known to be much more pitcher friendly than the American League?
While there is no doubt that the Blue Jays will be better this year than they were last, to consider them the by far World Series favorites would be a massive gamble. It's hard to imagine that, even with this winter's pillaging of Miami and New York, as well as the addition of steroid pumping outfielder Melky Cabrera, Toronto will be at least 25 games better than they were this past season, and they likely will have to about 30 games better to by far be considered the favorites, especially in an AL East that is shaping to be a massive dogfight with the Red Sox improving, the Yankees being the Yankees and coming back maybe two or three games worse than they were last year in the worst case scenario for them, and the Orioles coming back still strong but maybe five to seven games worse than they were this past season, as their 2012 season was likely a bit of a fluke according to the Pythagorean Expectation.
In addition, there is no guarantee the Jays can hang onto Josh Johnson past this season. He is a free agent next winter, and will be the top pitcher on the open market in line for a massive pay day. If his stuff translates well in the AL East, one can easily see the Red Sox and possibly even the Yankees jumping into the running for him. It would be a bad baseball decision to sign Johnson to an extension before he pitches a game in a Jays uniform, but if he pitches well it could be difficult to work one out with him, making it a double edged sword for Toronto. Johnson will get paid regardless, but the question will be who ponies up the cash for his services.
Anthopolous is also putting his job on the line with these bold moves. If they backfire, he will come under mass scrutiny from fans, and if the team itself falters and he traded all of these prospects for nothing, he likely will be on the hot seat very quickly. Bad trades and poor long term contracts are what led to the downfall and eventual departure of Cubs President Theo Epstein in Boston, and they could eventually spell the end of Alex Anthopolous' tenure in Toronto.
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