2018 Over/Under Win Totals and Predictions For American League Teams

Outside of Giancarlo Stanton coming to New York and the potential 80 home runs him and Aaron Judge could hit combined, the most interesting aspect for the Yankees upcoming season will be their pitching. Aaron Boone will have some interesting decisions to make with the rotation because despite re-signing CC Sabathia, the Yankees pitching is relying heavily on a lot of young guys to make a big step forward. A name to look out for this year will be Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is a big left hander from South Carolina and was dominant in spurts last year but at times was too inconsistent. Montgomery should be a big part of the rotation as a possible 4^th starter and could become a big part of the Yankees getting over 94.5 wins or not.

 

It was a slower offseason for the Boston Red Sox until a week ago when Dave Dombroski made an agreement with outfielder J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110 million contract. The Red Sox are bringing in Martinez with the hope he will be able to apply the type of home run hitting power that the Red Sox missed so much last season when David Ortiz retired. Despite some injury woes, Martinez had 45 home runs last season in only 432 at-bats. And with Dombroski loving to trade prospects for proven MLB veterans, the Red Sox could add another arm midway through the season. As long as Chris Sale doesn’t take a step back this season, the Red Sox should be on their way for a third straight playoff appearance.

 

Toronto Blue Jays - over/under 81 wins
Biggest additions: Kendrys Morales, Mat Latos
Biggest subtractions: Scott Feldman, R.A. Dickey

 

Losing Edwin Encarnacion hurts for the Blue Jays. So, this means that the Blue Jays will be relying heaving on Kendrys Morales who is 32 and has some injury concerns with him. What will be a big factor on if the Blue Jays can get over 81 games or not will be how Morales does as the cleanup hitter. Replacing Encarnacion’s .263/.357/.529 and 42 homers is a lot to ask from Morales who has not had a truly great season since 2009. It is reasonable to expect that Jose Bautista will have a bounce back season from 2017’s disappointment but that might not be enough for a team that finished 4^th in the AL East and had only 76 wins.

 

Biggest additions: Daniel Hudson, CJ Cron, Carlos Gomez

Biggest subtractions: Evan Longoria, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson, Steve Souza

 

The Rays received a lot of criticism this offseason for selling off their best assets. Evan Longoria who was one of the most recognizable players in Rays’ history was traded for a trio of minor leaguers, hurting their offense greatly. The biggest thing to worry about for the Rays is how bad their offense will be. The Rays finished second to last in runs scored in 2017 and then got rid of four of their top five leaders in OPS. There are huge concerns on if the Rays will be able to stay competitive, especially in the beginning of the season if Christian Arroyo and Willie Adames start off in Triple-A. The Rays will most likely be closer to the first overall pick then a playoff spot.

 

Biggest additions: Andrew Cashner

Biggest subtractions: JJ Hardy, Seth Smith, Welington Castillo

 

The Orioles underachieved in 2017 by going 75-87 and finishing last in the AL East. With the Yankees and the Red Sox looking they will not take steps back this year and the Orioles entering the seasons with a long list of questions, it is going to very tough for the Orioles to make the playoffs this October. Things to look out for this season is if Chris Tillman can put his disastrous 2017 season behind him and prove he can be a stable part of the rotation like he was in 2016.

 

 

Cleveland Indians - over/under 94.5 wins

Biggest additions: Rob Refsnyder, Yonder Alonso

Biggest subtractions: Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Bryan Shaw

 

The Cleveland Indians were relatively quiet this offseason as Rob Refsnyder and Yonder Alonso were the only ones they brought into the mix. Alonso was the most notable signing as he is the replacement for Carlos Santana at first base. Alonso should be an improvement over Santana as he had a career year in which he hit 28 home runs and was an All-Star. Cleveland fans also have more to be excited about as their top prospect Francisco Mejia should be called up sometime this season as a catcher. If Mejia can continue his success of hitting .297/.346/.490 in Double A last year, the Indians will be in a great spot for him to replace an inconsistent Yan Gomes behind the plate and clinch the AL Central for a third year in a row.

 

Biggest additions: Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed

Biggest subtractions: Glen Perkins

 

The AL Central will be wide open this year with the Royals, White Sox and Tigers looking to be terrible. The Minnesota Twins could be a sleeper to win the division this year. Coming off a successful 2017 season where the Twins finished with an 85-77 record, second in the division, a +27-run differential, and ended seventh in runs scored, the Twins brought everybody back and are looking to take another step forward. Some could say that the Twins completely overachieved last year as they were the first team in baseball history to go from 100-plus losses one year to making the playoffs the next. So there is concern that they could take a step back in 2018. Despite the team needing a little more pitching, there is a lot to be excited with the money the Twins spent this offseason to add to their young core of position players. If Byron Buxton can cut down his strike out rate of 29.4 percent from last season, then the Twins could be in great hands to get back to the postseason.

 

Biggest additions: Miguel Almonte, Cam Gallagher

Biggest subtractions: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer

 

Here the Royals are coming off an 80-82 record in 2017 where they finished -89 in run differential and 24^th in runs scored. Most of what was a part of the 2015 World Series championship team is now gone. It is looking a lot like Mike Moustakas is going to be gone while Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer have already signed elsewhere. The Royals have the second worst farm system in baseball and are set up terribly for the future. The Royals are going to be looking to jump start their rebuild this year and are most likely headed to the bottom of the American League. The only thing to like about the Royals is the top of their rotation of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel which is decent. Look for the Royals to be huge sellers at the deadline and try to make their farm system a little more respectable. With all of that being said, 71.5 wins is a little too low for a team with this good of pitching.

 

Biggest additions: Welington Castillo, Luis Avilan, Joakim Soria

Biggest subtractions: Melky Cabrera

 

The White Sox just finished the first year of their overhauling rebuild. Now the reason to think the White Sox will gradually get better in their second year of the rebuild is that when teams go through this, they bring back only young players and the only way to go is up. However, the White Sox had a lot of talented assets to start the 2017 season who gave them a hot start. It was not until late July that the White Sox got rid of Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle, Jose Quintana, etc. Now the reasons that the White Sox will likely get better from their 67-95 record last season is that it is unlikely that Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson hit in the low .200s again and their pitching can only get better if Michael Kopech can make a call up in July or August. Also, a huge upgrade at catcher was made where Welington Castillo will be the opening day catcher after averaging 18 home runs, 59 RBIs, and a .775 OPS in the last three seasons. James Shields will be the opening day pitcher for the White Sox which is frightening but if enough prospects get called up and are just average, 68.5 wins should be a very reasonable ceiling.

 

Biggest additions: Travis Wood

Biggest subtractions: Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila

 

The Tigers are looking like they could be one of the worst teams in baseball. The Tigers are still very early in their rebuild and are looking to grow their farm system after a decade of contention but also a decade of Dave Dombrowski completely gutting prospect after prospect during their playoff pushes.  After last year’s deadline where Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, and Alex Avila were all moved, the Tigers were able to get a decent number of young prospects to hopefully build around. So, here the Tigers are with a very young team except for an aging Miguel Cabrera who is hoping to rebound after having his worst season of his career in 2017. The bright side to the Tigers’ lineup is having Miguel Cabrera, Victor Marinez, and Nick Castellanos. However, other than that there is not really anything to like. Look for the Tigers to make a good run for the #1 overall draft pick.

 

Biggest Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon

Biggest Subtractions: Luke Gregerson

 

Coming off a World Series championship, the Astros are clearly the favorite to win the NL West again. Bringing in Gerrit Cole and Hector Rondon will provide the Astros with great pitching depth as Cole no longer needs be the ace for the Pirates and instead can be the fourth pitcher in the Astros rotation. Although Cole is coming off one of his worst seasons where he had a 4.26 ERA, Astros fans should be confident he can get back to his All-Star self. The Astros feel that they have strengthened all of their weaknesses on their roster by upgrading their bullpen and if Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman can continue to improve, the Astros can definitely get back to the postseason and make another run at the title.

 

Biggest Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart

Biggest Subtractions: Justin Kelly

 

The Angels underachieved in 2017 as they finished 80-82, 22^nd in hitting, and 12^th in pitching. By far the biggest move the Angels made this offseason was Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani will get a chance to be in the starting rotation while also getting action as a designated hitter. Meanwhile, Ian Kinsler is coming off a terrible year with the Tigers where he hit a career-low .236 at the plate. It will be very interesting to see if Zack Cozart can repeat his All-Star year last year where he hit .297 while also being successful with his change of position from shortstop to third base. Despite none of their top prospects being ready enough to contribute in 2018, if the Angels can be in the hunt by the deadline, they could trade one of those pieces to add another arm to solidify their rotation behind Clayton Richards and Shohei Ohtani. Los Angeles has a very deep and balanced line up and is only another starting pitcher and left-handed bat from being very dangerous.

 

Biggest Additions: Ryon Healy, Dee Gordon, Nick Rumbelow, Andrew Romine

Biggest Subtractions: Danny Valencia, Drew Smyly, Jarrod Dyson, Yonder Alonso

 

The Mariners are not in a great position for the future. The team has underachieved over the last decade, and currently has one of the worst farm systems in baseball despite going 78-84 last season. In order for the Mariners to take a big step this season, they will need Nelson Cruz to have another great year after he hit 39 home runs in2017. The Mariners have a productive infield to look forward to with Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura all returning this season so if Dee Gordon can learn how to play the outfield at a high level and get his walk rate up after an abysmal 2017, the Mariners could be in business to end their 17-year playoff drought.

 

Biggest Additions: Bartolo Colon, Darwin Barney

Biggest Subtractions: Brett Nicholas

 

The Rangers had another quiet offseason going into 2018 and again pitching depth will be a problem. Although the Rangers are still looking for their 5^th starter in their rotation, the rest of the starting pitching looks set with the hope that ace Cole Hamels will recover from his down year in 2017 where he had a disappointing 3.20 ERA. The Rangers did not make any notable offseason moves and there are not really any young players to get excited about to take a step forward. The Rangers finished the 2017 season 26^th in runs and 27^th in hits. Expect more of the same in 2018 as the Rangers do not look to be dangerous against the rest of the AL West.

 

Biggest Additions: Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss, Ryan Buchter, Yusmeiro Petit, Jonathan Lucroy

Biggest Subtractions: Jesse Hahn, Ryon Healy

 

Despite trading two prospects for Stephen Piscotty, The A’s stayed pretty quiet this offseason as they continue to look to build their team through their farm system. The A’s have finished at the bottom of the AL West for the last three seasons and it is looking like that will happen again in 2018. The A’s are not in a position to win now but their influx of young talent is very promising as Billy Beane is hoping they will only get better and better. The 2018 season is all about progress and with the team finishing 75-87, it is very reasonable to think Jharel Cotton, Kendall Graveman, and Sean Manaea can take a step forward and get the A’s closer to 80 wins.