I know a lot of people here use my projection models to help inform their evaluations of prospects. I am generally happy with the performance of both the EWP and HUMBLE models, but there is no question that they sometimes make mistakes. The goal of this post is to pull up some of the more extreme historical cases where the models flubbed. Hopefully, some patterns will emerge that help us gauge the reliability of the model for different 2015 prospects.
I took all of the players drafted between 1990 and 2012, and subtracted their observed NBA wins peak from their projected average between EWP and HUMBLE models.