I've been called overly optimistic in the past but I don't see it that way. I go where the numbers point me. Last year the Brewers hot start made it more likely they would make the postseason than not. At least at certain points. It took an unprecedented collapse of historic proportions to knock them out of the Wild Card spot. No one could have reasonably expected that to happen and so if anything, that was an unrealistic expectation. This year is different.
At the time of writing this the Brewers are 8-18. Since the second wild card was incorporated the lowest win total for that spot has been 88 games.