Projections, by their nature, are conservative.
They focus on what’s most likely to happen, not necessarily what will happen, and for that reason the numbers various projection systems spit out can seem low.
Even with that in mind, the new PECOTA projections that Baseball Prospectus released today are not very encouraging, to say the least.
While there are some positives — Brandon Woodruff is projected to be one of the Top 20 pitchers in all of baseball by WARP and Luis Urias projecting for nearly 2 WARP, for example — they’re largely outweighed by some fairly disappointing numbers.