Three more points last year and the Michigan Wolverines men’s basketball team would have been in the Sweet 16. The Wolverines, who were lead by standout point guard Darius Morris, lost in the Big Ten Conference Tournament in the Semifinals to Ohio State (sound familiar?). Despite Morris setting a Michigan single season record for assists (235), they finished tied for fourth in the conference with a 9-9 record in league play. Their 20-13 overall record earned them a #8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In Michigan’s first round game versus #9 seed Tennessee the Wolverines made history. The Volunteers had, had a rough season under Bruce Pearl and endured many suspensions and negative publicity from the media. In the game where the two seeds are supposed to be the most evenly matched, it couldn’t have been farther from the truth. Michigan won 75-45, setting two Tournament records along the way. The win was the largest margin of victory of all time for a #8 seed. Michigan was also the first team to ever win a March Madness game without making a single free throw. It was the second biggest win in U of M basketball Tournament history, and also marked the ninth consecutive time John Beilien had won the opening game of a postseason tournament (5 NCAA 4 NIT).
Michigan’s confidence was as high as it possibly could have been as they prepared to play Coach K and the #1 seeded Duke Blue Devils. In summary Michigan played like “victors” and ended up losing by just 2 after a Darius Morris runner hit back iron as time expired. There is no such thing as moral victories, but if there was the Wolverines would have left that game with one. They finished the season with a respectable 21-14 mark and produced six more wins than their previous season.
Fast forward to this year, where the Wolverines have improved for the third straight year. Who could have predicted that upon Darius Morris’s ill advised jump to the NBA, U of M would have a freshman point guard step up and be even better! Trey Burke has made Maize and Blue fans have amnesia about last season. The Wolverines finished the year with a 13-5 conference record and earned a share of the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Michigan State. The title is Michigan’s first since 1986, a feat that not even the Fab Five accomplished. U of M already has three more wins than last year’s squad. Their tournament run starts tonight at 7:20 PM ET.
Game 1: #4 Michigan vs. #13 Ohio
If Coach Beilien wants to extend his streak of winning the first game of a postseason tournament to double digits, he must first go through the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats were a #3 seed in the MAC Conference Tournament and upset #1 seeded Akron 64-63 in the Championship. They set a single season record for wins with 27 and are no stranger to upsets. In the 2010 Tournament Ohio, the then #14 seed upset #3 seed Georgetown Hoyas 97-83. History will not repeat itself however, and here’s why:
• Despite losing in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals, Michigan finished their regular season winning 5 out 7 and has gone 8-4 in their last 12 games.
• Michigan is 311th in rebounding in the country but makes up for it by averaging 8.3 3-pointers a game.
• Running a four guard offense will cause major matchup problems for the Bobcats.
• Ohio likes to full court press and run on offense while Michigan slows the game down on both ends of the court by playing Big Ten defense and utilizing most of the shot clock.
• Ohio averages 70.7 points per game, Michigan allows 61. 4.
• If Tim Hardaway Jr. scores 16 or more points the Wolverines are 10-2.
The game will come down to two things. One is if the Wolverines are hitting their 3-point attempts. The old saying, “Live by the three, die by the three” couldn’t be a more true statement for this team. The second factor is the point guard matchup. Burke has outshined virtually every guard he has played, especially as of late. However the Bobcats will be relying on their star PG D.J. Cooper to outmatch Burke. Cooper is OU’s leading scorer (14.6) and assist man (5.7), and was the guy who led the Bobcats in their upset victory over the Hoyas two seasons ago. At that time, he was a freshman (like Burke is now) and averaged 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 steals in the two tournament games. In the end Michigan is the better overall team on both ends and should move on.
Prediction: 64-55 Michigan.
Game 2: #4 Michigan vs. (#5 Temple OR #12 South Florida)
In the next round Michigan would face the winner of the Temple versus South Florida game which tips off at 9:50 PM ET. While the Owls should win this game, South Florida has already gotten a tournament win beating California 65-54 in one of the play-in games on Tuesday. Michigan is a better team than either of the opponents they would have to face.
Why the Wolverines can beat Temple:
• The Owls won the Atlantic 10 Conference but lost their first game of their conference tournament to UMass.
• Temple lost it’s only game against a Big Ten opponent Purdue 85-77. Michigan finished higher than Purdue in the Big Ten.
• While both the Wolverines and the Owls can both hit the 3, Michigan plays better defense allowing 61.4 ppg to Temples 69.9 ppg. U of M has allowed fewer points per game against much better opponents than the Owls have played.
• In 4 of the 6 regular season losses Temple suffered they shot just 29% from beyond the arc.
• While the Owls trio of stars Juan Fernandez, Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt average 61% of the team’s offense at over 46 ppg they also turn the ball over more than 7 times a game between them.
If these two teams are to play each other in the round of 32, it will be one of the most evenly matched games in the tournament. Both teams count on their 3-point ability to carry them throughout the course of the game. They both have very similar style offenses. The main difference is that temple typically plays two bigs and three guards to Michigan’s one big, four guard set. This will give the Owls a rebounding advantage, but both Temple big men shoot around 57% from the free throw stripe. In the end I think Michigan will prevail due to their commitment to defense.
Prediction: 68-65 Michigan
Why the Wolverines can beat South Florida:
• The Bulls like to slow down the tempo and take full advantage of the shot clock like Michigan does, except they lack the scorers the Wolverines have.
• South Florida has one the worst turnover margins in all of Division I.
• USF’s leading scorer Augustus Gilchrist doesn’t even average double digits in scoring (9.6 ppg).
• The Bulls starting point guard Anthony Collins averages 3.5 turnovers per game.
• Hugh Robertson, starting shooting guard for USF shoots just better than 20% beyond the arc.
• On February 4th against Georgetown the Bulls went scoreless for 11+ minutes and had 9 straight turnovers at one point. They lost by 30, their fourth 20+ loss of the season.
If South Florida makes it this far then they would have already pulled two upsets out of their hat. Although the Bulls play stellar defense, so does Michigan. USF simply lacks the fire power on offense to compete with the Wolverines.
Prediction: 62-50 Wolverines
Game 3: #1 North Carolina vs. #4 Michigan
The Wolverines should make it to the Sweet 16 if they handle their business. The last time they went that far was 1994 when they advanced to the Elite Eight. If they do make it to the Sweet Sixteen they would more than likely have to face the #1 seeded Tar Heels of North Carolina. UNC should handle Vermont with ease, and not struggle too badly with either Alabama or Creighton. The Michigan, North Carolina matchup doesn’t favor the Wolverines as many believe the Tar Heels are National Contenders. They were unanimous preseason favorites to win it all. But with John Henson injuring his wrist in the ACC Tournament, no one knows how much he will play or how effect he will be. He is a major part of Carolina’s success. With that being said you never know, Michigan could pull off the upset. They don’t call it March Madness for nothing!