Three days after a disheartening loss, the naysayers are out in force.
“Michigan needs Denard Robinson to run first, pass second for any hope of success” - Bill Simonsen, MLive.com
“Iowa Upset Proves Denard Robinson Isn't a Real QB” - Andrew Kulha, Bleacher Report (and complete moron)
“Al Borges has neutered the game’s most exciting player” - any number of irate message board posters on TheWolverine.com
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We all have complaints about how the Iowa game played out, and certainly the play-calling should be among them. On Michigan’s first touchdown drive, Fitzgerald Toussaint repeatedly gashed the Hawkeyes with runs up the middle, and Denard connected on a number of short passes, including the touchdown in which he (gasp!) actually went through his progressions until he found the open man.
And then, well, I don’t know what happened. What I do know are two things, and this is not the first time I’ve said either:
1. All this talk about how Denard is sooo much better when operating out of the spread and should never be under center is ridiculous. Denard had two egregious turnovers against Iowa, and wouldn't you know it, both of them came from the shotgun spread formation.
And 2. Michigan is NOT a better team when Denard is running the ball 25+ times a game. Wanna know how I know? We’ve seen that before. It was just last year. And wouldn't you know it; those same naysayers who are begging for Brady Hoke and Al Borges to cut Denard loose and let him run, run, run are the exact same people who were decrying his over-willingness to run and the lack of downfield passing game seen in Rich Rodriguez’s offense.
Examples? Sure
How about 2010 Penn State. Denard ran 27 times for 191 yards. He set the Big Ten rushing record for a quarterback in the game’s eighth season. Anyone remember how that game turned out? Sure, blame the defense that couldn't stop a walk-on QB, but even with all that Denard, Michigan was down 28-10 at halftime and the game was effectively over.
How about 2010 Iowa, since so many people are up in arms over the team’s performance last weekend. Denard ran 18 times for 106 yards in the first half last year against Iowa, and threw for 96 more and a touchdown. And yet, Michigan put up all of 7 points, was down 21-7 at half and 28-7 after three quarters. Any points that were put up afterwards were done so in garbage time with good ole Tate Forcier at the helm and an injured Denard on the sideline (more on that in a bit).
Want one more? Ok, against Wisconsin last year, Denard has arguably one of his best-ever games (against a team with a pulse), racking up 239 passing yards with a 64% completion percentage, and 22 rushes for 121 yards. And yet, Michigan went into halftime down 24-0. A look inside the stats explains why... Denard had 84 yards rushing in the first half, but only 22 yards passing. As is the case with most teams getting blown out, he racked up crazy yardage when Michigan was forced to pass to catch back up. Sound familiar? It should; we’ve seen it a whole bunch in recent seasons (the fourth quarter against Iowa this past weekend included).
My point, for those of you to stubborn to figure it out on your own, is that Denard ran a ton last year, to the tune of record breaking numbers no less, but it wasn’t like Michigan was performing any better. Sure, the numbers may look better in areas like total yards and turnovers, but by and large those numbers were put up when games were already in hand, or in ridiculous shootouts vs. similarly inept defensive teams (see Illinois), when massive comebacks were needed and Michigan did just enough to provide glimpses of hope, only to have them dashed in the final minutes (again, a lot like Iowa). And this is to say nothing of the fact that Denard was so beat up from running so much in 2010 that he barely finished half of Michigan's games.
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One last point to consider: in John Bacon’s tell-all on the Rich Rodriguez era that I touched on last week, he notes on a couple of occasions that Rodriguez’s offense was entirely predicated on timing, so much so that both Denard and Forcier often just had to make a read pre-snap, choose the receiver they were throwing to, snap the ball and make the throw. That method certainly helped pad Robinson’s statistics, but did it actually work on the field when it mattered most against the teams that mattered most? Not so much.
Perhaps in an ideal world, Rich Rodriguez would’ve been kept on and forced to hire an entirely new defensive staff (though he certainly wouldn’t have been able to pull Greg Mattison from the Ravens). But Rodriguez is gone, and in his place is an offensive coordinator who prefers his quarterback to actually, you know, be a quarterback, i.e. make reads once the ball is snapped, find open receivers, and throw deep on occasion. Through nine games, Denard isn’t there yet, and his backup isn’t remotely close. Does that mean Denard’ll never get there? Not remotely. But it takes time, something that Michigan fans are loathe to allow after wallowing in utter misery for the past three seasons.
As I said before the season started, patience is required. Michigan has three games left, and all are winnable. But I can guarantee you that Michigan won’t win a single one if Denard is rushing 25+ times and not at all successful through the air. None of the defenses left on the schedule is going to allow a 20 carry, 200 yard performance, and 80 yards on 20 carries isn’t going to get it done.
And for those of you who find yourselves longing for Rich Rodriguez and the spread offense, answer me this: After sitting through the last three years, and after watching Alabama and LSU square off in a defensive snooze-fest the other night, I’d take a rapidly improving defense paired with an struggling offense over the opposite any day of the week, and twice on Saturdays.
Wouldn’t you?
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