This year's Wolverines are hard to get a read on - after impressive wins in their first two games (including a romp over Notre Dame in Ann Arbor), they needed a last-second escape to beat Akron and a fourth-quarter comeback to beat an abysmal UConn team.
The good news? Michigan is still undefeated at 4-0. The bad news - the Wolverines enter their Big 10 schedule on the heels of two subpar performances, and they won't have an "easy" game the rest of the way. Indiana and Michigan State might not be powerhouses, but there's no question that they have more talent than Akron or UConn. Saturday, Michigan opens their conference schedule with their Homecoming game against 4-1 Minnesota, a team that looked excellent in non-conference play but surprisingly lost their conference opener at home to Iowa, 23-7.
The bye week came at an opportune time for Brady Hoke, who used the break to address technical problems and make sure each unit was on the same page. Now, he'll have to hope his team can maintain intensity over four quarters and execute in all phases of the game - two things they didn't do against Akron or UConn.
Minnesota's biggest strength is their ground game, and the Gophers have averaged 231.8 rushing yards per game so far this season. Running backs David Cobb and Rodrick Williams Jr both average 5.8 yards per carry, and the tandem has combined for eight rushing TDs on the year. Minnesota is much less impressive under center, where they're expected to start Philip Nelson over dual-threat QB Mitch Leidner. Nelson has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions on the year, and the Gophers don't have any real weapons at wide receiver - Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon has over twice as many receiving yards as the Gophers' leading receiver, Derrick Engel.
For better or worse, this game will likely come down to which Devin Garner shows up on Saturday - the electric playmaker who tormented Notre Dame, or the tentative, inaccurate QB who threw five picks against UConn and Akron. Gardner has no doubt spent time during the bye week working on his reads and his decision-making, and Brady Hoke will need him to play smart if Michigan wants to start their Big 10 schedule on the right note.
Predictions:
The 'good' Devin Gardner shows up on Saturday: Gardner has had two weeks to get his head straight, and we just can't see Brady Hoke letting him go out there against Minnesota and drop another stink bomb. #98 will account for at least four touchdowns on Saturday, with two coming on passes to Jeremy Gallon.
The defense forces turnovers: The Wolverines haven't forced more than two turnovers in a game so far this season, but against shaky QB Philip Nelson they'll have a great chance to make big plays. The defense will force at least three turnovers, with two interceptions and a fumble or two.
Fitz Toussaint goes off: Fitzgerald Toussaint quietly had a very nice game against Akron, but Michigan fans were too busy tearing their hair out to notice. Against a Minnesota defense that gave up 246 rushing yards to Iowa, Toussaint will have the opportunity to reach the second level, and he'll punish the Gophers with another 125 yard game.
Minnesota has a very good rushing attack, but they don't have a reliable quarterback or a cohesive defense. Michigan has spent their bye week gearing up for this important game, and the extra preparation is going to show as the Wolverines win their conference opener, 38-20.
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