When quarterback Devin Gardner lead the charge towards the student section following a big victory over Notre Dame, the Michigan Wolverines had their eyes set on national goals. Ranked No. 11 in the country and heading into the easiest part of their schedule, the Maize and Blue were one of the more promising teams in the country.
Then, close calls against both Akron and Connecticut caused things to take a surprising turn.
Despite the wins, Michigan has fallen in the rankings for two straight weeks. Unrestricted confidence has turned into uncertainty as the team continues to play to the level of its competition; no matter how certain victory seems before kickoff. Incredibly, Michigan's 4-0 start has done nothing but create skepticism around the program.
Luckily, history suggests that the Big Ten opener won't be a third straight scare for Brady Hoke's team against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Minnesota, the third straight inferior opponent on Michigan's schedule, will travel to Ann Arbor to face a team coming off of its first off week of 2013.
If anything should scare Jerry Kill's team, it's Michigan's bye week history.
In the past 10 years, the Wolverines have dominated in those games to the tune of a 6-1 record. From Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez, head coaches in Ann Arbor have done a great job using the week off to prepare their teams in recent years.
Michigan hasn't just won six of its last seven games following a bye week, but has consistently done so in a convincing fashion. In the six wins, Michigan has outscored its opponents by an average of 22.5 points behind prolific offensive attacks. The 38.5 points per game Michigan averaged in those wins is more than it was able to score on the weak defenses of either Akron or Connecticut.
Gardner's struggles are the most alarming offensive problem for Coach Hoke through four games. As a first-year starter, the redshirt junior has failed to take care of the ball; throwing eight interceptions and losing two fumbles.
If the last decade is any indication, a week off is exactly what Gardner needed.
Since 2003, Michigan signal-callers have done a great job making adjustments and taking care of the ball during bye weeks. Despite turnover-prone quarterbacks Denard Robinson and Steven Threet leading the charge the past four of these games, Michigan has 1o passing touchdowns to only three interceptions in the past seven games following a bye week.
Gardner would do well to continue that trend.
Turnovers have been the team's worst nightmare the past three weeks. Against Notre Dame and Akron, costly pick-six's turned stable Michigan leads into close games. In Connecticut, it was a Gardner fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The quarterback's turnovers have not only cost Michigan possessions but have directly led to points for the other team. The bye week is a great chance to fix that.
Michigan's illustrious post-bye history hasn't come against cupcake opponents. All seven games were in Big Ten play, the most noticeable of which was against Wisconsin in 2008.
As Michigan fans will reluctantly recall, 2008 was the first season of the Rich Rodriguez tenure in which the Wolverines won only three games. In a year that included losses to Illinois, Purdue and Toledo, few expected Rodriguez's team to contend with the top-10 Wisconsin Badgers.
Once again, the bye week magic kicked in.
Michigan had no business beating Wisconsin that day after trailing 19-0 at halftime. Even factoring in the second-half comeback, quarterback Steven Threet completed only 12 of 31 passes for 96 yards and leading rusher Sam McGuffie averaged 2.4 yards per carry. Michigan was outgained by 116 yards and turned the ball over five times while Wisconsin's offense held the ball for 12 minutes longer than its opponent.
Statistics indicate that Michigan should have been blown out of its own stadium that afternoon, but after every bye week the Maize and Blue seem to find a way to win.
Michigan has been a heavy favorite in each of its last two games and figures to face the same expectations against Minnesota. If the trend of winning by 20 or more points after a bye week continues, then the Wolverines will be back on track heading into the conference season.
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