When I make predictions on college football games, I have had a strong history of success while remaining objective, I always start by looking at talent. Which teams talent would I take with a gun to my head if I had to win the game if all other factors are equal?
Ace's bet of the week: Georgia Tech -7.5 @ Virginia. 6-0 this year, let's keep this money train on track GTech! (line has dropped to 7 on a lot of books and in Vegas . . .)
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The simple fact when it comes to Michigan and Michigan State is that the Spartans are just a more talented team than Michigan is right now. Even the Spartans most glaring weakness, the O line, is going to win the matchup battle vs. the Michigan D line. The winner of this game has almost always been the team that runs for more yardage. I hear that stat every year and am amazed with how dead accurate it always is. The MSU running game will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Shut them down, Michigan can leave East Lansing with a program changing victory . . . but it just won't happen.
The status check that all Michigan fans should look at for half time: If MSU runs for over 100 yards in the 1st half, head out and mow then lawn, because the game is over and MSU is going to cruise to a victory the rest of the afternoon. The MSU running game is the key to this game, so look for Michigan coaches to focus on stopping it early and forcing Kirk Cousins into 2nd&8 and 3rd&6 situations. Whether those efforts are effective will be very clear to see on the stat sheet.
So, after giving you my keys to the game, I figure I will give my prediction before getting into game insights: MSU 24-16.
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Now, let's get down to tomorrows game plan.
Offense
The Michigan coaching staff has been prepping for this game all year. The overall plan is to employ a 'shock and awe' strategy on offense in an effort to score early, thus forcing MSU out of their comfort zone, and hopefully turning to the passing game. There are some plays that have been absent from the playbook that the coaches are looking to run in the first few series to keep MSU off balance. Look for a game plan that resembles the 2010 UConn game from Denard. I know, I have referenced that game in the past when discussing a game plan, but it really is the best example of the 'shock and awe' that this offense and Denard Robinson are capable of.
There is a play that some refer to as the All 11 that I expect the offense to utilize early. The All 11 is the play where Denard lines up with 1 RB, and sometimes a TE/H-back in backfield and at snap every player is moving forward, with 10 of them blocking for Shoelace. The best example video of this play below:
The best value of this play is that it forces the safeties to make a decision. Early on, one safety may attempt to give help up the middle. The obvious hope is that after one or two 10+ yard runs, we will see this:
[caption id="attachment_1059" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Pre snap"]
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[caption id="attachment_1060" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Denard to run??"]
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[caption id="attachment_1061" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Sorry safety, not running this time. TD Tree."]
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If we see this play in the first two series, feel good. It means that the Michigan coaches and players are executing the game plan and is imposing their will on Michigan State. The is one thing I will look for in the 1st quarter . . if we can get the MSU safeties to commit to stopping Denard, even in 3 WR situations, we are in good shape. If not . . . well, that lawnmower might be calling your name.
Will we see Thomas Rawls?
Rawls is secure as the #4 RB on the depth chart right now, so, don't expect to see much of him in crunch time this week. He may get 1-2 snaps in a 3rd and short situation, but Fitz, Smith and Shaw will see the action for the rest of the year.
Is Fitz Toussaint 100%?
No, but he will play. Fitz was clearly hobbled last week with numerous bumps and bruises. He has performed decent enough in practice this week to earn the start, but do not expect him to get more than 10 carries.
What should we expect from Vincent Smith?
Smith is vital to the success of this offense. He has a knack for making people miss in the open field, and that is where he will be utilized, especially this week. Look for a misdirection screen to Smith early, and, hopefully often. The success of the offense in this game is to make MSU over commit resources to stop Denard running, and then it is on Denard to make the right reads and throws to open receivers when the time is right.
Whats the deal with Roundtree?
The curious case of Roy Roundtree. The guy lost the confidence of Denard down the stretch in 2010, culminating with his epic-butter fingers in OSU game. Denard spent a lot of time this summer working with Drew Dileo and Jeremy Gallon, as those guys proved to be more reliable in 7 on 7 drills in the off season.
Can he return to his late 2009, early 2010 form? Not likely. It has become apparent that Jeremy Gallon is a coach and QB favorite and is slowly replacing Roundtree as the slot/outside combo #1 receiver to compliment the true outside guy that we have in JR Hemmingway. Adding to that, 2 sophomores have outperformed Roundtree in practice in recent weeks: Drew Dileo and Jeremy Jackson. As these players get more snaps and experience, look for Roundtree to become less of a part of the U-M offense.
What happened to Jerald Robinson?
I don't like to name names on things like this, but I would place Robinson #1 on my transfer watch list this off season. Guy got into the doghouse in August and has never crawled out of it.
Defense
The game plan for the D is simple. STOP THE RUN! RS Freshman LB Jake Ryan is going to act as a 5th D lineman in many situations. Expect Ryan to line up close to the strong side DE in running situations and force the ball carrier towards the middle of the Michigan D, where the coaches feel much better with contain.
Is Will Campbell going to start?
No, but expect his snaps to reflect starters snaps. Will can be a motivated guy when he feels he has been slighted or called out. Big Will has had a great week in practice and is eager to prove the MSU doubters wrong. Many folks, from MSU fans to coaches, to writers, have labeled WC a bust and his mission to lose that label starts tomorrow. Look for Campbell to come out very excited and aggressive.
Who gets the most snaps in the secondary?
The same 4 guys will start: Woolfolk, Floyd, Kovacs and T. Gordon. Freshman CB Blake Countess has passed fall camp star Courtney Avery and will continue to be the guy that the coaches lean on to make plays in passing downs. Countess will get opportunities early to cover MSU star WR B.J. Cunningham 1 on 1 with no safety coverage. If the freshman can rise to the occasion, this will be the game that he stamps his place in the starting lineup for the rest of the season and at least the next 2 years.
One name to keep an eye on: Marvin Robinson. If Robinson doesn't see significant snaps this weekend (10-15), I would not expect him to be a big part of the Michigan defense in the future.
So, how can Michigan win this game?
It's very simple: stop the run, don't turn the ball over. If the team can accomplish these things, I would be more than happy to eat crow on my prediction of a loss . . . but don't bet the house on it.
This is the game Hoke, make me proud again.
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