While the second trimester is still a week away from completion, the bye week has presented a perfect opportunity to take a look back at Michigan’s season to this point, and to look ahead at what the final five weeks may have in store.
A Look Back
Through seven games, Michigan is 6-1. I spend a lot of time (read: far too much) on websites and message boards dedicated to Michigan football, and the fact is, I can’t recall too many fans or experts that predicted Michigan would have six wins and be ranked in the low teens at the bye week. A number of people figured they’d drop a game to what looked on paper as the best offense Michigan would face all year in Notre Dame. Others called San Diego State a evil trap game for a new coach against his former team. Some opined that Michigan would lose their first road game at Northwestern, as the Wolverines have a long and (not so) illustrious history of losing their first road game of the season. And more than a few realized how tough it would be to beat buck the recent trend against an MSU team armed with an experienced quarterback and a stout defense.
Speaking of the MSU game, it was brought to my attention that the lone ChatSports MSU writer, in between terrifically (un)clever jabs such as calling Michigan “little sister,” was dying to read my take-away from that game, but judging from his recap's date of publication, he apparently opted to ignore my actual blog from the game, which I thought conveyed my thoughts pretty clearly. Michigan State was better. They were better coached, better prepared, more physical, they shut down Denard Robinson, and they played with reckless abandon (with intent to injure, no less). But I guess I shouldn’t be expecting too much when the guy, seemingly a little bitter about me saying that MSU wasn’t a must-win (and who’s the little sibling?), thought that I felt that way “because OSU is more important.” I of course said nothing of that ilk; rather, I was very clear in my opinion that MSU wasn’t a must-win because MSU was and is the better team this year and the game was in East Lansing, whereas I believe Michigan is better than Ohio, and that game is in Ann Arbor. (Insert obligatory joke about Sparty and reading comprehension here).
Anyway, Michigan sits at 6-1, but here’s the thing: aside from one game against the B10’s JV squad, they haven’t played a single game consisting of four solid quarters of football. Without a fairly lucky 94-yard return, the Western game could’ve gone very differently. Michigan really only played one quarter against Notre Dame, though it might go down as the best quarter in the history of football. The first half of the Eastern game was entirely meh, as was the second half versus SDSU. The first half versus Northwestern was an atrocity, and Michigan was unable to put together a single decent quarter against Sparty, though only giving up 7 points in the first half was something of a feat.
That Michigan’s been wildly inconsistent isn’t a secret, and it’s not entirely surprising given a new coaching staff and the new offensive and defensive systems that come with change. But examining the paragraph above, it’s clear that the potential is there on both sides of the ball. Hell, Michigan played its worst game of the season against the best team it’ll face, and it was still one horrifically bad officiating mistake, and one awfully mindnumbing 4th down play-call from having the lead with six minutes to play.
So yeah, the potential is clearly there. If Michigan could just figure out how to combine its defense from the SDSU game with the offensive firepower they displayed against Northwestern in the second half, and if they could figure out how play that way for four quarters, and if they could play at that high level for multiple games, they could hypothetically run the table. But that's a whole lot of ifs...
[caption id="attachment_1161" align="alignnone" width="276" caption="Could see plenty more of this if Michigan can put it all together"]
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So, will they?
A Look Ahead
No, Michigan's not going to win out. A bye week isn’t going to magically cure Denard Robinson’s throwing woes any more than it will re-teach Michigan’s offensive line how to create holes for their struggling running backs.
But while the inconsistency will remain, this team is good enough to win every game left on the schedule, and should be favored in the majority of its five remaining games, starting this weekend against Purdue.
Make no mistake, Purdue is nowhere near the laughingstock that most people believed early in the season, as evidenced by their win over Illinois last week. But Michigan will take out the aggression pent up from losing to MSU yet again, and will win fairly easily in the friendly confines of Ann Arbor.
I don’t know what to make of Iowa and Illinois, and I’m not sure anyone else does either. Even though both games are away from Michigan Stadium, they’re both very winnable. Iowa plays very classic Big Ten brand of football, and with Michigan’s improved defense refusing to yield any big plays, this is a game that they should be able to win. Hopefully the noon kickoff will help erase any memories that may be lingering in Denard’s head about missing incredibly wide open receivers during his frantic near-comeback in 2009.
Illinois, on the other hand, is the game I’ve had circled since early in the season. I don’t care who Michigan’s defensive coordinator is, be it Greg Mattison, Greg Robinson, Ron English, or Jim Hermann, I’m not sure I’ll ever not fear an opposing quarterback who can make plays with his legs. And Nathan Scheelhaase is such a man. They’re a struggling team, but much like MSU, they’ll be coming off a bye, and unfortunately, Michigan’s offense as it stands is fairly easy to prepare given two weeks. I’ll say this, if Michigan can get through Illinois with just one loss to date, I believe that’s how they’ll finish the regular season.
Even if they do lose to Illinois, homefield advantage should be enough to carry them to a win over Nebraska, which to this point looks like Michigan’s mirror image. A defense that gives up plenty of yards and can be scored upon; an offense led by a dynamic quarterback who can make plays with his feet, but hasn’t been able to connect on much of anything when asked to drop back and pass. Because of they share a number of Michigan’s qualities, I’ll be keeping a keen eye on their upcoming Legends clash against MSU. While the Huskers likely represent the last best hope to prevent Sparty from the inaugural Legends Division title (ewww), it would certainly be comforting to see MSU put Taylor Martinez on lockdown this weekend. I’m far less concerned with Nebraska’s defense; as such, the best case scenario would be a good ole fashioned 9-6 Cornhusker win. But that’s neither here nor there. The point is, should MSU keep Nebraska’s offense in check, and I suspect they will, I’ll walk away feeling pretty good about that game in November.
Which brings us to Ohio. I’ll delve much deeper into this game in the coming weeks, but at this juncture, suffice it to say that I believe that particular losing streak ends this year.
[caption id="attachment_1033" align="alignnone" width="259" caption="It's coming"]
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Oh, and you’re right, Mr. Sparty... OSU is, and always will be, more important.
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