After three weeks, we know nothing.
We know nothing about what kind of team Michigan has. We know next to nothing about the college landscape as a whole.
After three weeks, Michigan stands at 2-1. They got demolished by Alabama, which may or may not be even stronger than during its championship campaign of 2011, but Michigan’s 14 points in that game represent the only points scored on ‘Bama to date. Michigan gave up 290 yards on the ground before narrowly escaping Air Force two weeks ago, but Air Force is leading the nation in rushing at more than 385 yards a game. And Michigan pounded UMass 63-13 on Saturday, covering the ridiculous 45-point spread, but UMass is terrible, losing to Indiana 45-6 just one week earlier.
[caption id="attachment_3246" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Is Michigan headed towards a down year? "]
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These are indeed strange times, when almost nothing can be gleaned from the season’s first three weeks. The Doomsayers were out in force following the Alabama game, but prior to the season, nobody actually expected Michigan to be a National Championship-caliber team. Those Doomsayers had a field day after the Air Force game, but neglected to mention that Air Force runs on everybody (they finished 3rd in college football in 2011). Rightly or wrongly, a 50-point win over perhaps the country’s worst team hasn’t been enough to assuage the fears of those who watched the first two games and left feeling certain that Michigan would struggle to win eight games, much less the Big 10.
[caption id="attachment_3247" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Or will Michigan bounce back? "]
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There are undoubtedly some ugly signs: the offensive line has struggled to open holes for running backs; freshmen linebackers Joe Bolden and James Ross seem to be more effective than senior Kenny Demens and sophomore Desmond Morgan; the cornerbacks have looked awful in run support. But positives exist as well: for as much as the O-line has struggled in the run game, it’s been quite strong in pass protection, even against Alabama; Devin Gardner and Devin Funchess have emerged in the passing game and provided Denard Robinson with dynamic new weapons; and despite the few errant throws per game that we’ve come to expect, Denard looks much more comfortable with Al Borges’ offense.
The truth is, we know nothing.
This rings true across the Big 10 landscape, where all we thought we knew heading into the season has been turned upside down. With Ohio and Penn State ineligible, many observers thought that Wisconsin could sleepwalk its way to the Leaders Division title, and Montee Ball’s invitation to the Heisman ceremony in New York was a foregone conclusion. But after two lackluster victories sandwiching a brutal 10-7 loss to Oregon State, Purdue (really) looks to be the favorite to head to Indianapolis, and Ball is left wondering why in the hell he opted not to turn pro after putting up a record season in 2011.
Ohio is looking eerily reminiscent of Michigan in 2010, with a dual threat quarterback who’s putting up Heisman-caliber numbers in early September en route to a 3-0 start.
[caption id="attachment_3248" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Miller has taken a pounding thus far"]
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But Ohio needed a horribly botched defensive sequence, not to mention oodles of missed field goals just to escape a not-very-good Cal team at home. If Urban Meyer were anyone else -- say, Rich Rodriguez, for example -- the entire narrative would be whether Braxton Miller will even survive the entire season considering the pounding he’s taken to this point.
And then there’s Michigan State, seen as the beacon of the Big 10 after beating a Boise State team that’s a mere shell of its former self. Armed with a top-10 defense, Sparty was sure to roll through its schedule and onto the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1987. Its players, brimming with (over)confidence, even took to the Twitter-verse to trash Denard Robinson, comparing him quite unfavorably to their own Andrew Maxwell, not to mention MSU walk-on QB Tommy Vento. Two weeks later, Sparty tears are everywhere.
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That offense, led by Maxwell, looks downright awful, and the Spartans’ Twitter feeds have gone mysteriously silent.
The Alabama game led most Michigan fans to fear October’s showdown with MSU, but MSU failed (miserably) its first big test last week against Notre Dame, and suddenly the MSU game looks far more winnable. But Michigan must first face the Irish, in a game that will -- finally -- provide some insight as to what kind of team Michigan has.
Much of the talk leading up to Saturday’s game has focused on the trenches: how Michigan’s offensive line will fare against a Notre Dame front seven that has been dominant thus far, and if Michigan’s rather mediocre defensive line will be able to contain ND running backs Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick, not to mention mobile quarterback Everett Golson. At this juncture, it’s safe to say that ND has the upper hand in both of these matchups.
But there has not been enough talk about ND’s secondary, which is so young and injury depleted that it conjures up images of Michigan’s all-time porous secondary of Rich Rodriguez’s final season. Michigan might not have much success running the ball on Saturday, but as mentioned earlier, Michigan’s offensive line has been solid in pass protection. If the line continues to give Robinson time, he’s going to have a field day through the air. Factor in that Robinson lives in the nightmares of each and every Notre Dame player -- Freddy Krueger style -- after his performances in each of the last two years, and it adds up to Michigan’s fourth straight victory over the Irish, a win that propels Michigan into the Big 10 season on a very high note.
Besides, one does not get to call Brady Hoke fat without consequence.
[caption id="attachment_3250" align="alignright" width="300" caption="My money's on Hoke"]
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Karma’s a bitch, Brian Kelly.
Michigan, 27-20.
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