On the eve of the biggest game of Michigan’s season to date (aside: doesn’t every week seem to bring the season's “biggest game”), it’s easy to look at Michigan’s opponent (the hated Spartans), Michigan’s ranking (No. 11), and the state of the Big 10 conference (utter putrescence), and determine that this game is one that Michigan “must win.”
And why not? The stars have seemed to align for Brady Hoke this year, and he has Michigan on the verge of doing something truly special. A win this weekend, and Michigan could arguably finish the regular season with just one loss, if that. A win this weekend puts Michigan in firm control of the Legends division at 3-0, with all the victories coming against fellow Legends. And, oh by the way, a win this weekend would put a stop to MSU's first three-game winning streak over the Wolverines since Vietnam was split into a North and a South, a fact that's certainly not lost on the suddenly arrogant Spartans of the world (all 300 of them)
But despite all that, this game is not one that Michigan has to have, except perhaps in the minds of Michigan’s seniors, who surely would like to avoid becoming the first class to go “0-fer” against Moo U since JFK was in office.
Unfortunately, Michigan State is arguably the more talented team. That will undoubtedly ruffle the feathers of most Michigan fans, but aside from quarterback and offensive lines, there’s not a single position group where Michigan has the clear (or even unclear) advantage. Le’Veon Bell, Edwin Baker and Larry Caper aren’t having statistically great seasons running the ball, but neither are any of Michigan’s backs, and none of the Wolverines have shown any signs of being able to do this.
Michigan’s receivers match up pretty well with those of MSU, though none are threats to take it to the house each time they touch the ball like Keyshawn Martin is. Mike Martin is a beast at defensive tackle, but he won’t be an NFL first rounder in 2012; Jerel Worthy, on the other hand, might be a top 10 pick.
And so on and so forth.
Secondly, history is not on the side of Brady Hoke. This statistic is as surprising as any, but no Michigan coach has beaten Michigan State in his first season since Bennie Oosterbaan in 1948. Bo couldn’t do it, though his teams would win the next eight matchups and 13 of 14. Gary Moeller lost his debut by a single point in Michigan Stadium in 1990. And Lloyd Carr lost three of his first seven games against the Spartans, including his debut in 1995, before beating MSU six straight times to end his career, relegating the boys in green and white to “little brother” status in the process.
Thirdly, while this game has historically impacted in-state recruiting, and significantly so during the RichRod era, Brady Hoke has already landed the vast majority of the top 2012 prospects in the state of Michigan, and has also nabbed the commitment of quarterback Shane Morris, the odds-on favorite to be the state’s top player in 2013. A loss to Michigan State this weekend isn’t going to change the fact that Brady Hoke has already re-established Michigan as the destination of choice for for the state’s preeminent players.
[caption id="attachment_1032" align="alignnone" width="286" caption="Richardson, Morris, Ojemudia and Ross are all elite in-state talents"]
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But most importantly, the fact of the matter is that it’s extremely difficult to go on the road and beat a good team that’s led by a 5th-year senior quarterback. No, it’s not impossible, especially not for the best teams in college football. But Michigan’s not elite (not yet, anyway), and in reality, we still don’t know what type of team Michigan truly is. Is it the team that turned the ball over three times and gave up 300 yards in the first half against Northwestern? Or is it the team that utterly dominated the Wildcats on both sides of the ball in the second half?
The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, and by Saturday night, we’re going to have a much clearer idea of just how far this team has come. Win, and it’s not inconceivable to see Michigan run the table. Lose, and Michigan should still be 7-1 heading into its final two road games against a very mediocre Iowa team and a surprisingly good Illinois, both of which are certainly beatable.
It’d obviously be nice to beat Michigan State, to leave no doubt that MSU’s reign as the state’s steward is over, but if it doesn’t happen this year, it will in 2012 (I’ll go on record right now that Michigan wins next year by three scores). But losing to MSU on Saturday won’t necessarily prevent Brady Hoke and Michigan from having a magical season.
It’s not a must-win game.
On the other hand, the game on November 26 against that school down south? Now that’s a game Michigan HAS to have.
[caption id="attachment_1033" align="alignnone" width="259" caption="Time to end the streak"]
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