A little over 24 hours from now, the 2012 edition of the Michigan Wolverines -- Team 133 -- will kick off one of its most anticipated seasons in recent memory. Coming off a historic 2011 season that saw Michigan win 11 games, beat Ohio for the first time in eight years and win a BCS game for the first time since 2000, the reasons for optimism are obvious: Michigan returns the sport’s most explosive and exciting signal-caller; a 1,000-yard rusher in Fitzgerald Toussaint (suspended for the Alabama game); and the entire linebacking and secondary corps from a defense that finished last season 6th in scoring defense. While Michigan players and coaches do a terrific job of keeping to the company line and bemoaning that last season’s goals went unaccomplished due to the lack of a Big Ten title, it’s extremely difficult to think of the 2011 season as anything but a rousing success.
[caption id="attachment_3113" align="alignright" width="273" caption="The last we saw of the Wolverines, they were celebrating a Sugar Bowl title"]
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And yet, while last year’s preseason provided a sense of renewed hope after the debacle that was the Rich Rodriguez era, allowing some to predict that double digit victories were possible, this season has most pundits prognosticating a step back despite Michgan's lofty preseason ranking. Around the country, most people seem intent on harping on the fact that Michigan’s defensive line – the lifeblood of any solid defense – is losing three starters. Michigan also loses its Rimington Award-winning center in David Molk, and last season’s only true playmaking receiver in Junior Hemingway (the fact that Hemingway was a relative unknown outside Michigan circles prior to 2011 seems to matter not).
Not to mention, the schedule is simply brutal. In short, the prevailing sense seems to be that Michigan could have a better team than last year’s, but come away with a worse record.
Not only is that possible, I think it’s likely.
Due to the neutral site game against Alabama, Michigan only has six true home games, compared with eight last year. That Michigan must also face Ohio, Notre Dame and Nebraska on the road (with the latter two at night) has many people predicting an 8-4 season, which any way it’s sliced, would be a step back.
[caption id="attachment_3114" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Lincoln at night is no easy place to play"]
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For the record, I have Michigan doing one better than that and finishing the regular season at 9-3, which should be enough to win the Legends Division and send Michigan to Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship Game.
As they did last year, Michigan will once again run the table at home, including a much-needed win at the hands of Thug U Michigan State. After their bye week in late September, they’ll go on the road to beat Purdue, and they’ll handle Minnesota with relative ease in early November. As for those four big “road” games, Michigan will win one of them… I’m just not sure which.
But it won’t be Alabama.
I’m not saying that Michigan can’t beat the Crimson Tide. They certainly can, but an almost perfect game is required. If the 2012 versions of Michigan and Alabama met five times on a neutral field, Michigan would win one. Tomorrow won’t be that one.
Much of the talk surrounding tomorrow’s clash focuses on Alabama’s offensive line, which is already being touted in some circles as one of the best ever.
[caption id="attachment_3115" align="alignleft" width="210" caption="All-World tackle-turned-center Barrett Jones"]
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Combined with Michigan’s almost entirely new defensive line, it’s easy to understand why the spread is 14 points, give or take: Bama should hold onto the ball, grind it out, and pound the Wolverines into submission.
I, on the other hand, believe the Wolverines chances hinge almost entirely on their experienced secondary. Michigan will undoubtedly be forced to stack the box and throw oodles of bodies at Bama’s running game, which will leave cornerbacks JT Floyd and Blake Countess alone on islands for most of the night. If they can man up on Bama’s receivers and avoid giving up big plays over the top, Michigan’s linebackers can work to neutralize Bama’s advantage in the trenches. It’s a big “IF,” but its also very much within the realm of possibility.
[caption id="attachment_3116" align="alignright" width="254" caption="Blake Countess, along with counterpart JT Floyd, might be the key to the game"]
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On the other side of the ball, Michigan must hope that Denard Robinson can keep Bama’s defense honest with his arm. He struggled mightily against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Virginia Tech in 2011, and has yet to prove that he can throw the ball effectively in the face of relentless pressure. Especially considering Toussaint’s suspension, Nick Saban’s defense is going to dare Robinson to throw the ball, and tomorrow represents the first opportunity for Denard to show the world that offseason talk of his improvement as a passer isn’t just talk -- that he’s better at going through his progressions; that he’s no longer tossing up jump balls off his back foot; that he has a better understanding of when to tuck the ball and run.
I want to believe these “IFs” will translate to reality, that Denard will come out firing bullets (specifically to the guys wearing winged helmets) and that Bama won’t run roughshod all over Michigan’s defense. But it’s asking too much.
Michigan will keep it close. They’ll play their asses off and put a decent scare into the hearts of SEC apologists everywhere. Were I a betting man, I’d follow in Floyd Mayweather’s footsteps and bet the farm on Michigan covering the gigantic spread.
[caption id="attachment_3117" align="alignright" width="284" caption="Kings of the Hill"]
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The Maize and Blue will lay the foundation for another strong season as they continue to re-climb the ladder towards college football’s apex, but the Crimson Tide currently occupy the penthouse, and they’re not going anywhere quite yet.
Bama: 24-17.
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