Following Michigan’s embarrassing loss to Iowa on November 23rd a game in which they led 21-7 at half time, a group of very influential Michigan football boosters reached out to representatives of Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, hoping to gauge his interest in potentially becoming the Michigan football coach after the 2013 bowl season or perhaps after the end of the 2014 season.
Michigan has a coach, right? – so there has to be more to the story.
Here’s what we know:
The Iowa loss was the breaking point for a large faction of Michigan football boosters who had otherwise been incredibly supportive of Hoke up until that loss. The feeling following the Iowa loss was that Michigan would likely lose by 30-40 points to Ohio State the following week and Hoke would essentially be coaching for his job in a bowl game, reminiscent of Rich Rodriguez on January 1, 2011 (though many say Rod was gone regardless of bowl outcome).
The boosters wanted to avoid a national debacle and the appearance of incompetence that Michigan went through following the 2007 and 2010 seasons. As you recall, in 2007 it was a foregone conclusion that Les Miles would be the next Michigan coach. In 2010, John Harbaugh was singed, sealed and delivered to Ann Arbor (from the public's perspective). When neither of these expected outcomes occurred, the Michigan athletic department came out looking foolish and naive in the public eye.
This time around, Michigan decision makers were determined to make an Ohio State-style hire: Finding the best candidate in a matter of days with no media circus and hire him (see: Urban Meyer hire). Many, including the booster I know personally, think John Harbaugh is that can’t-miss candidate that would say yes to Michigan.
Only one problem. After the incredible showing vs Ohio State, there almost no chance that Hoke is going to be let go this season, regardless of the outcome of the bowl game. But, that doesn’t mean he isn’t on America’s hottest seat come 2014, likely needing a 10-2 season and win over Ohio State to save his job.
What was the response from Harbaugh’s camp?
John Harbaugh is very young (52) and incredibly accomplished – 5 straight playoff appearances and a Super Bowl title. Why would he consider making a move to college? Frankly, Michigan truly is his dream job (grew up in Ann Arbor, went to Ann Arbor Pioneer high school). The fact that he won a Super Bowl, coupled with the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, has him thinking that leaving on top may be the most ideal time to move to a college job (Michigan or others) and spend the next 10-15 years becoming a legend at the school he chooses.
The time tables for college hires and the NFL season will make a move to college incredibly difficult for Harbaugh, and that is his biggest concern. 6 weeks ago, the Ravens were long shots for the playoffs and it looked like Harbaugh could quietly talk to schools (Michigan and Texas, namely) following the Ravens regular season finale on Sunday. Things have changed big time since then - the Ravens hae one 4 of 5 games and are in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the AFC. If the Ravens win Sunday, they will likely be in the playoffs and Harbaugh would almost certainly squash all talk of a move this year.
If they lose and miss the playoffs, things will get very interesting.
John is said to have a bit of a morality issue with even considering the Michigan job – he genuinely loves Brady Hoke and considers him a friend. The two coached together at Western Michigan for 3 seasons from 1984-86 and have remained friends since, with Harbaugh even going as far as to give Hoke his blessing to pursue then Ravens defensive coordinator Greg Mattison to join him at Michigan in early 2011.
Harbaugh does not want, under any circumstances, to be seen as the reason the Hoke gets fired. His response to the Michigan inquiry was very frank:
- Yes he is interested
- Would never leave before the Ravens’ season was over
- Would not take the job is their were leaks that he was the reason that Hoke was let go
- Would demand a 3 day or less turnaround from time Hoke was let go until the time he was hired (to avoid forcing him to deny interest in the job)
There is a vocal minority of prominent boosters who want Hoke gone as early as this Monday if the Ravens miss the playoffs and for Michigan to offer Harbaugh more money than Saban to take the job. Due to strong support from AD Dave Brandon and billionaire alum Steve Ross, it is very unlikely this would take place, no matter what the outcome of this weekend’s games are.
What is more likely is that Harbaugh would become the coach of Michigan following the 2014 season: Here is the scenario that could play out:
- Michigan goes 8-4 (or worse) in 2014 and loses to OSU again, dropping Hoke to 1-3 against the Buckeyes
- The Ravens miss the playoffs in 2014, with his season being over 12/28/2014
- Hoke is let go within a couple days following Michigan’s bowl game (end of Dec/Jan 1)
- Harbaugh is immediately hired and retains several key members of the Michigan coaching staff (likely including Greg Mattison as DC)
Will it all play out this way? Who knows. But, know this: many key power brokers at Michigan want Hoke out and are determined to compete with Urban Meyer for Big Ten titles in the next decade, and a 3-5 Big Ten record is not cutting it. These boosters believe that a home-run hire is the only way to return Michigan to the forefront of college football. John Harbaugh is their guy.
The next 12 months are going to be very, very interesting.
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