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Bad Betting Advice, NCAA Tournament Edition: Using Math to Make the Picks

As tip-off to the 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament approaches, serious and casual fans of the sport have likely already made at least one attempt to fill out a bracket for their office pools. Before you make that final submission, I have a bit of advice for you.

In the first post of this two-part series, we reviewed the historical patterns in NCAA Tournament upsets and explained the mathematical underpinnings of why those patterns exist. With this information, we know why the chaos exists and what a “typical” NCAA Tournament bracket should look like. But, we still do not know how to apply that know-how in order to truly dominate our office pools.