In his seminal book on basketball analytics, Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver provides a method to predict a team’s win-loss record. Oliver’s predictions are based on modeling the difference between points scored and points allowed using a bell curve.
It turns out Oliver’s model is pretty good. Last year, the Miami Heat scored an average of 100.0 points per game and they allowed an average of 98.4 points per game. Oliver’s method predicts the Heat should have won 55 percent of their games, which would have resulted in a record of 45-37. The team’s actual record was 48-32, getting it right within three games.