If the Heat doesn’t get help from the Hawks or Nets tonight, and misses the playoffs, then there’s a 98.2 percent that Miami would pick 14th in the June draft.
The Heat would have a 0.5 chance of moving up to the first pick in the weighted lottery, a 0.6 chance of moving up to the second pick and an 0.7 chance of moving up to the third pick.
In some ways,finishing with the worst lottery draft pick (14th) is the worst possible scenario with regard to the draft. Since the turn of the century, the overall quality of players selected 15th and 16th (first two playoff teams) has been better than players picked 14th.