The Miami Heat will finish the 2015-16 season with 38 wins (six games under .500), according to a projection by the analytics-driven site FiveThirtyEight.
The ESPN-owned site used a projection model called CARMELO, which “identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.”
This model does NOT like the Heat’s core, pegging Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as mere “rotation players” and Goran Dragic an “average starter.”
Last year’s team won 37 games with their core getting devoured by the injury bug.