There's an almost one-in-four chance that Kentucky pass-rusher Josh Allen, who's likely to be picked in the top five of the 2019 NFL draft, doesn't develop into a starting-caliber player.
When teams select a player in the draft, they aren't getting what that player will become. They're getting a range of outcomes. That's where projections come in.
ESPN's NFL draft projections take Scouts Inc. grades, incorporate testing from the scouting combine, then translate the data into probabilities of career-path buckets -- Pro Bowl caliber, starting caliber, bench/special teams player, replacement level or non-factor -- for the player's first three seasons in the league, all relative to the player's position.