The college football offseason is painfully long, and over the course of the 7.5 months between the national title game and Week 0, we can talk ourselves into quite a bit. The first time a potential Alabama starting quarterback throws an interception in spring ball, we'll convince ourselves that Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are due for a genuine setback. By August, we'll decide they're as loaded as ever.
Here's where the advanced stats can help us a decent amount. While outliers happen every year based on injuries, close games and the whims of 18- to 22-year-olds and a pointy football, a solid projections system can help us define the most likely range of outcomes for teams.