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What are the odds Scott Satterfield is still Louisville’s coach after 2022?

Following Louisville’s loss to Air Force in the First Responders bowl, and the apparent collapse of the men’s basketball program, the hot topic around these parts lately has been whether or not we should be firing the men in charge of these two programs. And while we still have a ways to go before any decision is made for either head coach, I’d like to take a look at the potential for Scott Satterfield to stay at Louisville beyond next season.

For this exercise let’s strip things down to bare bones. Let’s throw out all the controllable and uncontrollable nuances of the situation Scott Satterfield finds himself in, and instead just focus on the likelihood of someone in Satt’s position failing or succeeding.