We're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there's two keys I need to have to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all of the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!