Even in an age in which we're developing shinier new metrics, NFL pass-rushers are judged by one number before all others: their sack total. And for the second straight year we're using a statistical model to predict that number for the league's best defenders based on past performance attributes and their 2022 playing situation.
We're using the same model as last year (with some light tweaks) that includes some of the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
How often a player's defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's 2022 schedule get sacked
A player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
How often a player rushes from edge (as opposed to the interior)
Defensive linemen and linebackers who rushed at least 25% of the time last season and are projected to play at least 250 snaps this season by Clay were included, and rookies were excluded.