Study after study has shown that NFL teams have little ability to draft the right players after accounting for where those picks take place. Even the best general managers have a rough time landing on the correct selections every year. Eagles GM Howie Roseman drafted Jalen Reagor just before Justin Jefferson in 2020. In the same draft, Chiefs GM Brett Veach picked Clyde Edwards-Helaire immediately before Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. and D'Andre Swift came off the board. In 2017, 49ers GM John Lynch took Solomon Thomas (and otherwise was going to draft Reuben Foster) when Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes were still available in the top 10.
2024 NFL draft Round 1 trades: Which teams should move up?
