According to Miyakawa’s analytics, there is a 42% chance that a 14-seed upsets a 3-seed.
“The most likely culprit is Troy, with a 20% chance of beating Kentucky,” Miyakawa says, while noting that the probably would be much lower if Kentucky was fully healthy.
There is a 42% chance we have a 14 seed upset over a 3 seed this year.
The most likely culprit is Troy, with a 20% chance of beating Kentucky. This probability would be much lower if Kentucky had a fully healthy squad.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2025
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