Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs has released his ZIPS projections for 2016, starting with the Royals. ZIPS are arguably the gold standard of baseball projection systems. You can read a bit about the different projection systems here.
ZiPS, like many of the other projection systems, uses weighted averages of the previous four seasons, but uses a PECOTA-like comparison system to help create an age adjustment. With a database that now extends back into the early 1970s, it aims to compare Ben Revere types to Ben Revere and Adam Dunn types to Adam Dunn, using techniques that fall under the umbrella of cluster analysis.