The Kansas City Royals are turning PECOTA into a joke. At this point. Las Vegas should start setting an over/under on when Kansas City will surpass their projected PECOTA win total.
Projection systems are supposed to take subjectivity out of baseball predictions. Using a wide array of data, PECOTA aims at determining a team’s true talent level while trying to pare away the effect of variance (luck). PECOTA has done such a good job at this exacting art that many consider it the gold standard for projection systems.
But, PECOTA is simply missing something about the KC Royals.