It is PECOTA Week at Baseball Prospectus, which means the release of their 2021 projections. This year presents an unusual challenge in deciding how to weigh last year’s truncated 60-game season. Ultimately, Baseball Prospectus decided to weigh last year as it would any other 60-game stretch, writing:
As such, there is nothing special about 2020 MLB performances as far as PECOTA is concerned, as compared to other samples of similar size. The weight ultimately placed on individual previous performances is determined by the demonstrated connection between such performances and future performances, not because we have decided to assign it some particular value.