The Kansas City Royals have clowned Baseball Prospectus’ respected PECOTA projection system over the last seven seasons. They’ve not only exceeded PECOTA‘s projection each year, they’ve done it by an average of 7.85 wins per season.
In sabermetric terms, Baseball Prospectus has been off by a mile. Missing by an average of almost eight wins per season is like over-looking Mike Trout every year. That’s insane.
YEAR PECOTA ACTUAL DIFF
2016 76 81 +5
2015 72 95 +23
2014 79 89 +10
2013 76 86 +10
2012 70 72 +2
2011 66 71 +5
2010 66 67 +1
PECOTA has been particularly horrible over the last four years.