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How the Royals can exceed their PECOTA-projected win total

It’s no secret that the PECOTA standings hate the Royals. Well, let me rephrase that. It’s no secret that the PECOTA standings hate your team. PECOTA hates everybody and it’s clear that the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm has malice in its cold, dead heart.

While PECOTA has a long and pretentious history with the Royals, dating all the way back to our old friend Bill Pecota, it hasn’t ever really been wrong. There are a few noted exceptions, of course. From 2013-2015, the Royals were projected to win 76, 79, and 72 games, respectively. They went onto win 86, 89, and 95 wins, respectively.