If you look at the standings, you might think the Royals should be able to easily handle the Reds - even in Cincinnati. They’re not quite a .500 team. If the Royals are good, you might reason, they should at least take two out of three. But, as noted in the series preview, the Reds’ Pythagorean record has them as even unluckier than the Royals with a record a whopping 12 games worse than what their run differential would suggest.
On top of that, Nick Martinez will pitch for the Reds tonight. Martinez has never spent a full major league season as a starter.