FOURTH QUARTER: With 1:05 remaining and the Ravens (leading 36-35) facing a fourth-and-1 from their own 43-yard line, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson rushes for 2 yards.
According to the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide, the Ravens’ decision to go for it here was unequivocally the optimal call, by a difference of 24 percentage points in win-probability value. Converting meant the Ravens would win. If they hadn’t converted? Their win probability would have dropped to 33 percent. And if they’d punted the ball back to the Chiefs, the Ravens’ chance of winning would have been roughly 58 percent, assuming Patrick Mahomes and Co.