The Jacksonville Jaguars traded down in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Such an occurrence is usually looked down upon by fans. Casuals want their team to draft a prospect whose name they recognize, and many believe it’s best to pick as high in the draft as possible to come away with as close to a sure thing as possible.
In reality, ‘sure things’ don’t exist in the draft. The fact that teams overrate their ability to delineate between booms and busts is not a new concept — it was originally brought about nearly 20 years ago in a 63-page research paper by economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey.