Oh no. I come back from three years away and immediately wreck everything. I’m as superstitious as Matt Campbell so if we lose to Kansas this weekend I’ll go back to my cave, no questions asked.
Last weekend’s game at Baylor was certainly a let down, but analytically the team acquitted themselves better than many would have guessed. The season has a lower margin for error going forward but not all hope is lost.
On to the numbers.
The Offense
SP+: 30th (Down 8)
FEI: 15th (up 7)
My best guess on the shifts in the opposite direction are a) different preseason weightings still in each model and b) heavy penalty by SP+ for not converting opportunity zone drives (inside Baylor’s 40) into touchdowns.